Ille-et-Vilaine — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Ille-et-Vilaine
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ille-et-Vilaine — 5ème circonscription | 37.3% | 32.7% | 25.0% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageIlle-et-Vilaine | 24.3%+12.9 | 27.7%+4.9 | 33.9%−8.9 | 2.5%−0.5 |
| National averageFrance | 17.0%+20.3 | 36.0%−3.3 | 29.0%−4.1 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Christine LE NABOUR · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 4.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christine LE NABOUR Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 33,147 | 42.4 |
| Françoise GILOIS | RN and allies | 23,298 | 29.8 |
| Gilles RENAULT | Left (NFP) | 20,199 | 25.8 |
| Christelle JARNY | Far left | 1,494 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire-Atlantique — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Forecast updated