Ille-et-Vilaine — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Ille-et-Vilaine
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ille-et-Vilaine — 1ère circonscription | 41.9% | 26.8% | 20.6% | 6.2% |
| Provincial averageIlle-et-Vilaine | 33.9%+8.0 | 24.3%+2.4 | 27.7%−7.2 | 10.1%−3.9 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+12.8 | 17.0%+9.8 | 36.0%−15.4 | 12.2%−6.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Marie MESMEUR · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 15.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marie MESMEUR Elected | Left (NFP) | 28,467 | 42.3 |
| Nicolas BOUCHER | Centre (Ensemble) | 21,453 | 31.9 |
| Jeanne REY DU BOISSIEU | RN and allies | 11,878 | 17.7 |
| Joëlle LE GALL | LR and allies | 3,372 | 5.0 |
| Sébastien GIRARD | Others | 887 | 1.3 |
| Valérie HAMON | Far left | 875 | 1.3 |
| Rosa VASQUEZ | Left (NFP) | 347 | 0.5 |
| Frédéric MATHIEU | Left (NFP) | 8 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 5ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Ille-et-Vilaine — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Forecast updated