Orne — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Orne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 78% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 43%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orne — 2ème circonscription | 43.9% | 34.0% | 16.0% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOrne | 39.1%+4.7 | 26.1%+7.9 | 20.6%−4.6 | 2.0%+0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+7.9 | 12.2%+21.8 | 29.0%−13.1 | 3.9%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Véronique LOUWAGIE · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 9.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gérard VIENNE | RN and allies | 17,502 | 40.0 |
| Véronique LOUWAGIE Elected | LR and allies | 14,411 | 33.0 |
| Guillaume SACRISTE | Left (NFP) | 7,336 | 16.8 |
| Amale EL KHALEDI | Centre (Ensemble) | 3,060 | 7.0 |
| Bernadette VELLY | Far left | 470 | 1.1 |
| Séverine PREHU | Sovereignists | 456 | 1.0 |
| Raymond HERBRETEAU | RN and allies | 455 | 1.0 |
| Patrick LEVACHER | Others | 49 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sarthe — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Eure — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Eure — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Eure-et-Loir — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Sarthe — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Sarthe — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated