Oise — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Oise
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oise — 4ème circonscription | 44.5% | 28.4% | 16.3% | 7.6% |
| Provincial averageOise | 47.9%−3.4 | 8.5%+19.9 | 21.0%−4.6 | 18.6%−11.0 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+8.5 | 17.0%+11.4 | 29.0%−12.7 | 12.2%−4.7 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Eric WOERTH · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 16.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu GRIMPRET | RN and allies | 25,093 | 40.2 |
| Eric WOERTH Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 18,646 | 29.9 |
| Mohamed ASSAMTI | Left (NFP) | 10,644 | 17.1 |
| Jean LEFEVRE | LR and allies | 3,942 | 6.3 |
| Sophie REYNAL | Centre (Ensemble) | 2,157 | 3.5 |
| Jean-Claude CASAS | RN and allies | 772 | 1.2 |
| Caroline DASINI | Far left | 422 | 0.7 |
| Noël NGABISSIO | Greens | 422 | 0.7 |
| Augusto FERNANDES | Sovereignists | 280 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-et-Marne — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Oise — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 11ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Val-d'Oise — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 12ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated