Val-d'Oise — 9ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Val-d'Oise

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the united left a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 27%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	LR and allies	Centre (Ensemble)
Val-d'Oise — 9ème circonscription	39.8%	34.3%	12.5%	9.6%
Provincial averageVal-d'Oise	39.7%	29.6%+4.7	10.4%+2.2	15.5%−6.0
National averageFrance	29.0%+10.7	36.0%−1.7	12.2%+0.3	17.0%−7.4

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Arnaud LE GALL · Left (NFP)

The united left won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the united left ahead by 5.5 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Arnaud LE GALL Elected	Left (NFP)	17,157	40.7
Agnès MARION	RN and allies	12,872	30.6
Elisa DEMIR	Centre (Ensemble)	6,149	14.6
Anthony ARCIERO	LR and allies	4,789	11.4
Danièle HANRYON	Far left	621	1.5
David SAID	RN and allies	381	0.9
Nsimba WASSA	Others	157	0.4
Mohamed NAJIB	Others	0	0.0
Vanessa RONCHINI	Far left	0	0.0

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.