Nord — 19ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Nord
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 40.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nord — 19ème circonscription | 61.0% | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.4% |
| Provincial averageNord | 42.0%+19.0 | 28.2%−7.2 | 11.8%−1.7 | 3.6%+0.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+25.0 | 29.0%−8.0 | 17.0%−6.9 | 3.9%+0.5 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Sébastien CHENU · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 40.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sébastien CHENU Elected | RN and allies | 27,592 | 58.3 |
| Cédric BRUN | Left (NFP) | 10,337 | 21.9 |
| Franck WATELET | Centre (Ensemble) | 7,136 | 15.1 |
| Djemi DRICI | Others | 1,150 | 2.4 |
| Cécile BOURLET | Far left | 1,098 | 2.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nord — 20ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 16ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 18ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 21ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 17ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), competitive
- Forecast updated