Nord — 16ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Nord
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Far left | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nord — 16ème circonscription | 55.9% | 27.5% | 11.2% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageNord | 42.0%+13.9 | 28.2%−0.7 | 11.8%−0.5 | 1.5%+0.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+19.9 | 29.0%−1.6 | 17.0%−5.8 | 1.1%+1.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Matthieu MARCHIO · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 28.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthieu MARCHIO Elected | RN and allies | 26,608 | 53.1 |
| Alain BRUNEEL | Left (NFP) | 14,199 | 28.3 |
| François CRESTA | Centre (Ensemble) | 8,135 | 16.2 |
| Éric PECQUEUR | Far left | 1,145 | 2.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nord — 17ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), competitive
- Nord — 19ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 20ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Pas-de-Calais — 11ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated