Nord — 12ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Nord
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 34.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nord — 12ème circonscription | 56.3% | 21.4% | 19.0% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageNord | 42.0%+14.3 | 12.7%+8.6 | 28.2%−9.1 | 3.6%−1.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+20.3 | 12.2%+9.1 | 29.0%−10.0 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Michael TAVERNE · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 34.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael TAVERNE Elected | RN and allies | 31,567 | 54.7 |
| Sébastien SEGUIN | LR and allies | 12,279 | 21.3 |
| Bernard BAUDOUX | Left (NFP) | 11,992 | 20.8 |
| Isabelle PREVOST | RN and allies | 932 | 1.6 |
| Laurent LEHRHAUPT | Far left | 894 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nord — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 21ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aisne — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 18ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 19ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 20ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated