Marne — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Marne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marne — 4ème circonscription | 45.6% | 25.9% | 17.1% | 7.8% |
| Provincial averageMarne | 37.3%+8.2 | 28.9%−3.0 | 18.2%−1.0 | 11.4%−3.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+9.6 | 17.0%+8.9 | 29.0%−11.9 | 12.2%−4.4 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Lise MAGNIER · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 19.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Achille BISIAUX | RN and allies | 21,045 | 42.8 |
| Lise MAGNIER Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 15,245 | 31.0 |
| Maxence LAURENT | Left (NFP) | 8,845 | 18.0 |
| Gabriel MICHEL | LR and allies | 3,249 | 6.6 |
| Laurent GOSSEAU | Far left | 690 | 1.4 |
| Marty DUCANDA | Others | 134 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Marne — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Marne — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Ardennes — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Ardennes — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Marne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Marne — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated