Thursday, October 15, 2026
B.C. votes in 9 days

Marne — 3ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · Marne

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 48.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 26.8%
  • Left (NFP) 18.0%
  • Sovereignists 2.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.4%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Sovereignists
Marne — 3ème circonscription 48.1%26.8%18.0%2.5%
Provincial averageMarne 37.3%+10.7 28.9%−2.1 18.2%−0.2 0.5%+2.0
National averageFrance 36.0%+12.1 17.0%+9.8 29.0%−11.0 0.3%+2.2

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Current member

Maxime MICHELET · RN and allies

Previous election (2024)

The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 21.2 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Maxime MICHELET Elected RN and allies 21,890 43.8
Eric GIRARDIN Centre (Ensemble) 15,942 31.9
Chantal BERTHÉLÉMY Left (NFP) 9,397 18.8
Johanna JABBOUR Sovereignists 1,219 2.4
Charlotte CORMERAIS Far left 769 1.5
Julien SENE RN and allies 719 1.4

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Forecast updated