Aisne — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Aisne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 40.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aisne — 1ère circonscription | 58.6% | 18.2% | 17.8% | 2.7% |
| Provincial averageAisne | 55.9%+2.7 | 20.8%−2.6 | 10.1%+7.7 | 2.1%+0.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+22.6 | 29.0%−10.8 | 17.0%+0.8 | 3.9%−1.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Nicolas DRAGON · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 40.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas DRAGON Elected | RN and allies | 24,774 | 54.5 |
| Damien DELAVENNE | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,380 | 22.8 |
| Charles CULIOLI | Left (NFP) | 8,654 | 19.0 |
| Jean-Loup PERNELLE | Far left | 701 | 1.5 |
| Philippe TRÉGUIER | RN and allies | 644 | 1.4 |
| Matthieu Léon BOUFFLET | Others | 316 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aisne — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Marne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Marne — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Aisne — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aisne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 12ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated