Ardennes — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Ardennes
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a 74% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 51%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ardennes — 3ème circonscription | 44.0% | 42.5% | 10.4% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageArdennes | 46.1%−2.1 | 26.3%+16.2 | 14.8%−4.4 | 2.7%−0.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+8.0 | 12.2%+30.2 | 29.0%−18.6 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jean-Luc WARSMANN · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc WARSMANN Elected | LR and allies | 15,362 | 43.6 |
| Isabelle ROGER | RN and allies | 15,296 | 43.4 |
| Sophie PERRIN | Left (NFP) | 4,139 | 11.7 |
| Laure AUGIER | Far left | 466 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ardennes — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Ardennes — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Meuse — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Marne — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Marne — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated