Ardennes — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Ardennes
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 29.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ardennes — 1ère circonscription | 50.5% | 21.2% | 16.8% | 5.1% |
| Provincial averageArdennes | 46.1%+4.5 | 8.5%+12.7 | 14.8%+1.9 | 26.3%−21.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+14.6 | 17.0%+4.2 | 29.0%−12.3 | 12.2%−7.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Flavien TERMET · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 29.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flavien TERMET Elected | RN and allies | 17,817 | 38.3 |
| Lionel VUIBERT | Centre (Ensemble) | 12,157 | 26.2 |
| Damien LEROUGE | Left (NFP) | 8,127 | 17.5 |
| Christian CHARVET | RN and allies | 4,257 | 9.2 |
| Sabine MISSET | LR and allies | 1,782 | 3.8 |
| Arnaud RENNESSON | Others | 998 | 2.2 |
| Sonia D'ORGEVILLE | Greens | 956 | 2.1 |
| Nadia OCTAVE | Far left | 386 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ardennes — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Marne — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Ardennes — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Marne — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aisne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nord — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated