Haute-Loire — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Haute-Loire
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 0.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haute-Loire — 1ère circonscription | 37.8% | 37.0% | 17.8% | 4.5% |
| Provincial averageHaute-Loire | 38.8%−0.9 | 36.0%+1.1 | 18.3%−0.4 | 3.9%+0.6 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2%+25.6 | 36.0%+1.0 | 29.0%−11.2 | 17.0%−12.5 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Laurent WAUQUIEZ · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 0.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laurent WAUQUIEZ Elected | LR and allies | 27,013 | 36.8 |
| Alexandre HEUZEY | RN and allies | 25,091 | 34.2 |
| Celline GACON | Left (NFP) | 13,694 | 18.7 |
| Cécile Marcelle GALLIEN | Centre (Ensemble) | 6,932 | 9.4 |
| Electre DRACOS | Far left | 668 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Loire — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Loire — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Ardèche — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Loire — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Loire — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated