Loire — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Loire
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 70% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.3 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 60%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loire — 4ème circonscription | 41.6% | 30.3% | 24.5% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageLoire | 38.6%+3.0 | 21.6%+8.7 | 27.8%−3.3 | 2.0%−0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+5.6 | 12.2%+18.1 | 29.0%−4.6 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Sylvie BONNET · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 11.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gerbert RAMBAUD | RN and allies | 28,753 | 40.8 |
| Sylvie BONNET Elected | LR and allies | 21,649 | 30.7 |
| Bernard PAEMELAERE | Left (NFP) | 18,700 | 26.5 |
| Nora IBBARI | Far left | 1,368 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Loire — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Loire — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Loire — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Rhône — 10ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Forecast updated