Loire — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Loire
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 11%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loire — 1ère circonscription | 39.4% | 34.8% | 18.7% | 4.1% |
| Provincial averageLoire | 27.8%+11.6 | 38.6%−3.8 | 8.4%+10.3 | 21.6%−17.6 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+10.4 | 36.0%−1.2 | 17.0%+1.7 | 12.2%−8.2 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Pierrick COURBON · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 4.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pierrick COURBON Elected | Left (NFP) | 16,778 | 40.3 |
| Marie SIMON | RN and allies | 13,296 | 32.0 |
| Quentin BATAILLON | Centre (Ensemble) | 9,864 | 23.7 |
| Xavier KEMLIN | LR and allies | 811 | 1.9 |
| Romain BROSSARD | Far left | 473 | 1.1 |
| François CHORD | LR and allies | 366 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Loire — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Loire — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Rhône — 10ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Loire — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Loire — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated