Loire — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Loire
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loire — 3ème circonscription | 43.7% | 27.8% | 24.0% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageLoire | 38.6%+5.1 | 27.8% | 8.4%+15.7 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+7.7 | 29.0%−1.2 | 17.0%+7.0 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Emmanuel MANDON · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 15.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angelina LA MARCA | RN and allies | 22,813 | 40.9 |
| Emmanuel MANDON Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,243 | 29.1 |
| Vincent BONY | Left (NFP) | 15,254 | 27.3 |
| Rachid DAOUD | Left (NFP) | 754 | 1.4 |
| Pauline HUSSEINI | Far left | 727 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Loire — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Loire — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Rhône — 10ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Rhône — 11ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Rhône — 12ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Forecast updated