Ardèche — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Ardèche
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ardèche — 2ème circonscription | 39.7% | 24.1% | 16.5% | 12.4% |
| Provincial averageArdèche | 39.7% | 29.6%−5.5 | 17.0%−0.4 | 8.4%+4.0 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+3.7 | 29.0%−4.9 | 12.2%+4.3 | 17.0%−4.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Vincent TREBUCHET · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 15.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent TREBUCHET Elected | RN and allies | 24,417 | 35.8 |
| Michèle VICTORY | Left (NFP) | 17,051 | 25.0 |
| Laurence HEYDEL GRILLERE | Centre (Ensemble) | 11,904 | 17.4 |
| Jean-Paul VALLON | LR and allies | 10,509 | 15.4 |
| Rémy NODIN | Others | 2,197 | 3.2 |
| Gérard MONTREYNAUD | RN and allies | 777 | 1.1 |
| Jacky RITZ | Sovereignists | 613 | 0.9 |
| Michèle GAILLARD | Far left | 609 | 0.9 |
| Gérard JULIEN | Others | 213 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Drôme — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Loire — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Drôme — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Loire — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Loire — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Ardèche — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated