Ardèche — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Ardèche
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 10%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ardèche — 1ère circonscription | 43.7% | 37.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% |
| Provincial averageArdèche | 39.7%+4.0 | 29.6%+7.7 | 8.4%−1.1 | 17.0%−10.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+7.7 | 29.0%+8.3 | 17.0%−9.8 | 12.2%−5.4 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Hervé SAULIGNAC · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 6.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Céline PORQUET | RN and allies | 21,736 | 39.9 |
| Hervé SAULIGNAC Elected | Left (NFP) | 20,809 | 38.2 |
| Séverine GINEYS | Centre (Ensemble) | 6,651 | 12.2 |
| Marie-Pierre CHAIX | LR and allies | 3,067 | 5.6 |
| Thierry DORNE | Sovereignists | 651 | 1.2 |
| Muriel VANDER DONCKT | Far left | 518 | 1.0 |
| Maryse LECLERC | RN and allies | 506 | 0.9 |
| Pascal CHAMBONNET | Far left | 474 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Drôme — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Ardèche — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Ardèche — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Drôme — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Gard — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Loire — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated