Drôme — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Drôme
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drôme — 4ème circonscription | 42.2% | 25.4% | 25.1% | 3.3% |
| Provincial averageDrôme | 40.0%+2.2 | 29.0%−3.6 | 17.0%+8.0 | 10.7%−7.4 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+6.2 | 29.0%−3.6 | 12.2%+12.9 | 17.0%−13.7 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Thibaut MONNIER · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 16.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thibaut MONNIER Elected | RN and allies | 26,621 | 38.4 |
| Isabelle PAGANI | Left (NFP) | 18,222 | 26.3 |
| Emmanuelle ANTHOINE | LR and allies | 16,635 | 24.0 |
| Olivier GAFA | Centre (Ensemble) | 5,762 | 8.3 |
| Guy BERMOND | Sovereignists | 798 | 1.2 |
| Evelyne REYBERT | RN and allies | 702 | 1.0 |
| Monique BERNARD | Far left | 634 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Drôme — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Isère — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Isère — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Ardèche — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Isère — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Rhône — 11ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated