Loire — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Loire
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loire — 5ème circonscription | 41.2% | 38.4% | 16.8% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageLoire | 21.6%+19.6 | 38.6%−0.2 | 27.8%−11.0 | 2.0%−0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2%+29.0 | 36.0%+2.5 | 29.0%−12.2 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Antoine VERMOREL-MARQUES · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 2.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine VERMOREL-MARQUES Elected | LR and allies | 29,832 | 42.0 |
| Sandrine GRANGER | RN and allies | 25,644 | 36.1 |
| Ismaël STEVENSON | Left (NFP) | 13,039 | 18.4 |
| Florence NAYME | Greens | 956 | 1.4 |
| Edith ROCHE | Far left | 726 | 1.0 |
| Robert LACHAUD | RN and allies | 614 | 0.9 |
| Yann ESTEVENY | RN and allies | 239 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Loire — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Saône-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Rhône — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Allier — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Rhône — 9ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Rhône — 10ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Forecast updated