Allier — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Allier
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 0.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.
Compared with the average
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allier — 3ème circonscription | 39.1% | 38.7% | 18.6% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageAllier | 27.8%+11.3 | 39.8%−1.0 | 23.3%−4.6 | 2.0%−0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2%+26.9 | 36.0%+2.8 | 29.0%−10.4 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Nicolas RAY · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 0.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas RAY Elected | LR and allies | 21,464 | 40.1 |
| Rémy QUENEY | RN and allies | 20,270 | 37.8 |
| Aline JEUDI | Left (NFP) | 10,935 | 20.4 |
| Jean-François RAMEAU | Far left | 923 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Allier — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Loire — 5ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Puy-de-Dôme — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Saône-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Puy-de-Dôme — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Puy-de-Dôme — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated