Allier — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Allier
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allier — 1ère circonscription | 42.4% | 27.9% | 16.7% | 9.9% |
| Provincial averageAllier | 39.8%+2.7 | 23.3%+4.7 | 27.8%−11.1 | 5.8%+4.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+6.5 | 29.0%−1.1 | 12.2%+4.5 | 17.0%−7.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Yannick MONNET · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 14.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anne-Marie THÈS | RN and allies | 22,816 | 38.6 |
| Yannick MONNET Elected | Left (NFP) | 17,043 | 28.8 |
| Stephane LARZAT | Centre (Ensemble) | 8,811 | 14.9 |
| Alexandra BARDET | LR and allies | 7,889 | 13.4 |
| Jean-Marie GUILLAUMIN | LR and allies | 1,303 | 2.2 |
| Jean-Marc COLLOT | Far left | 636 | 1.1 |
| Blandine AGEZ | RN and allies | 602 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Allier — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Allier — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Nièvre — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Nièvre — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Saône-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Puy-de-Dôme — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Forecast updated