Nièvre — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Nièvre
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nièvre — 2ème circonscription | 47.6% | 25.5% | 15.4% | 6.5% |
| Provincial averageNièvre | 45.6%+2.0 | 23.0%+2.5 | 19.9%−4.4 | 6.5% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+11.6 | 29.0%−3.6 | 17.0%−1.6 | 12.2%−5.7 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Julien GUIBERT · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 22.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julien GUIBERT Elected | RN and allies | 23,481 | 44.8 |
| Christian PAUL | Left (NFP) | 13,788 | 26.3 |
| Sandra GERMAIN | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,708 | 20.4 |
| Marc Alexandre VINCENT | LR and allies | 2,757 | 5.3 |
| Dominique DUPUIS | Far left | 839 | 1.6 |
| Aurore MUNOZ | Sovereignists | 801 | 1.5 |
| Justine GUYOT | Left (NFP) | 9 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nièvre — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Allier — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Yonne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Yonne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Saône-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Allier — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated