Indre-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Indre-et-Loire
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 33%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indre-et-Loire — 4ème circonscription | 35.7% | 28.8% | 22.6% | 9.7% |
| Provincial averageIndre-et-Loire | 34.7%+1.0 | 29.4%−0.6 | 23.7%−1.2 | 7.7%+2.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%−0.2 | 29.0%−0.2 | 17.0%+5.6 | 12.2%−2.5 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Laurent BAUMEL · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 6.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-François BELLANGER | RN and allies | 20,328 | 32.9 |
| Laurent BAUMEL Elected | Left (NFP) | 18,374 | 29.7 |
| Fabienne COLBOC | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,092 | 27.7 |
| Sophie LAGRÉE | LR and allies | 5,287 | 8.6 |
| Kévin GARDEAU | Far left | 731 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vienne — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Indre-et-Loire — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Indre-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Indre-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Vienne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Indre-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated