Gironde — 12ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Gironde
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gironde — 12ème circonscription | 41.2% | 28.0% | 22.5% | 4.7% |
| Provincial averageGironde | 36.0%+5.2 | 32.7%−4.8 | 24.0%−1.5 | 3.7%+1.0 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+5.2 | 29.0%−1.1 | 17.0%+5.5 | 12.2%−7.5 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Mathilde FELD · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 13.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rémy BERTHONNEAU | RN and allies | 24,016 | 38.4 |
| Mathilde FELD Elected | Left (NFP) | 18,042 | 28.9 |
| Pascal LAVERGNE | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,270 | 27.6 |
| Gabriel LANDETE | LR and allies | 2,180 | 3.5 |
| Richard LAVIN | Far left | 1,021 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gironde — 10ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Gironde — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Gironde — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Gironde — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Lot-et-Garonne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Gironde — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated