Gironde — 8ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Gironde
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 25%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gironde — 8ème circonscription | 41.0% | 26.6% | 17.9% | 11.4% |
| Provincial averageGironde | 36.0%+5.0 | 24.0%+2.6 | 32.7%−14.9 | 3.7%+7.7 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+5.0 | 17.0%+9.6 | 29.0%−11.2 | 12.2%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Sophie PANONACLE · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 14.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laurent LAMARA | RN and allies | 31,248 | 36.9 |
| Sophie PANONACLE Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 26,881 | 31.7 |
| Marylène FAURE | Left (NFP) | 15,849 | 18.7 |
| Marc MORIN | LR and allies | 8,673 | 10.2 |
| Marie-Christine CARIES | RN and allies | 1,090 | 1.3 |
| Rémy COSTE | Far left | 898 | 1.1 |
| Céline BLUT | Others | 137 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gironde — 6ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Gironde — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Gironde — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Gironde — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Gironde — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), competitive
- Gironde — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated