Gironde — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Gironde
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 32%.
Compared with the average
| Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gironde — 1ère circonscription | 37.4% | 33.3% | 25.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageGironde | 24.0%+13.3 | 32.7%+0.6 | 36.0%−10.5 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 17.0%+20.4 | 29.0%+4.3 | 36.0%−10.5 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Thomas CAZENAVE · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 4.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas CAZENAVE Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 28,564 | 38.3 |
| Céline PAPIN | Left (NFP) | 25,517 | 34.2 |
| Bruno PALUTEAU | RN and allies | 15,654 | 21.0 |
| Béatrice POMAREL | Centre (Ensemble) | 3,143 | 4.2 |
| Virginie TOURNAY | RN and allies | 1,164 | 1.6 |
| Fanny QUANDALLE | Far left | 511 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gironde — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Gironde — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Gironde — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Gironde — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Gironde — 6ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Gironde — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated