Gironde — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Gironde
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gironde — 5ème circonscription | 45.1% | 30.9% | 17.2% | 3.9% |
| Provincial averageGironde | 36.0%+9.1 | 32.7%−1.9 | 24.0%−6.9 | 3.7%+0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+9.1 | 29.0%+1.8 | 17.0%+0.2 | 12.2%−8.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Pascale GOT · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 14.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grégoire DE FOURNAS | RN and allies | 35,457 | 42.3 |
| Pascale GOT Elected | Left (NFP) | 26,631 | 31.8 |
| Stéphane SENCE | Centre (Ensemble) | 15,576 | 18.6 |
| Benoït SIMIAN | Centre (Ensemble) | 3,041 | 3.6 |
| Laurent TOUSSAINT | LR and allies | 2,218 | 2.7 |
| Thierry FAGEGALTIER | Far left | 858 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gironde — 6ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Gironde — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), competitive
- Gironde — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Gironde — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Gironde — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Gironde — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated