Eure-et-Loir — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Eure-et-Loir
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eure-et-Loir — 4ème circonscription | 47.8% | 34.3% | 13.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageEure-et-Loir | 43.5%+4.3 | 23.8%+10.5 | 15.3%−1.9 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+11.8 | 17.0%+17.3 | 29.0%−15.6 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Philippe VIGIER · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 13.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roger PECOUT | RN and allies | 18,854 | 43.1 |
| Philippe VIGIER Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,236 | 39.4 |
| Sylviane BOËNS | Left (NFP) | 6,243 | 14.3 |
| Vincent LHOPITEAU | RN and allies | 817 | 1.9 |
| Anne-Laure ASSAYAG | Far left | 548 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Eure-et-Loir — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Loiret — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Eure-et-Loir — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Loiret — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), competitive
- Yvelines — 10ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), competitive
- Eure-et-Loir — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated