Eure-et-Loir — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Eure-et-Loir
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 57% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.9 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 86%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eure-et-Loir — 1ère circonscription | 37.6% | 27.8% | 23.2% | 8.4% |
| Provincial averageEure-et-Loir | 43.5%−5.9 | 23.8%+3.9 | 15.3%+7.8 | 12.6%−4.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+1.7 | 17.0%+10.8 | 29.0%−5.8 | 12.2%−3.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Guillaume KASBARIAN · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 9.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emma MINOT | RN and allies | 20,576 | 33.7 |
| Guillaume KASBARIAN Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 20,105 | 32.9 |
| Jean-François BRIDET | Left (NFP) | 14,705 | 24.1 |
| Ladislas VERGNE | LR and allies | 4,388 | 7.2 |
| Pierre-Louis DELAUNEY | RN and allies | 698 | 1.1 |
| Marie-José AUBERT | Far left | 659 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Yvelines — 10ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), competitive
- Eure-et-Loir — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Eure-et-Loir — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Yvelines — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Yvelines — 12ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Yvelines — 11ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated