Yvelines — 12ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Yvelines
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 20%.
Compared with the average
| Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yvelines — 12ème circonscription | 35.6% | 30.1% | 29.2% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageYvelines | 26.0%+9.6 | 29.5%+0.6 | 26.9%+2.4 | 2.6%+0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 17.0%+18.6 | 29.0%+1.1 | 36.0%−6.7 | 3.9%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Karl OLIVE · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 5.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karl OLIVE Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 20,610 | 40.8 |
| Christophe MASSIAUX | Left (NFP) | 15,333 | 30.3 |
| Jean-Louis METTELET | RN and allies | 12,585 | 24.9 |
| Bruno JAY | RN and allies | 743 | 1.5 |
| Jean-Pierre MERCIER | Far left | 537 | 1.1 |
| Patrick SCIELLER | Others | 400 | 0.8 |
| Diabé KAMARA | Left (NFP) | 369 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Yvelines — 11ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Yvelines — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Yvelines — 3ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Yvelines — 6ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Yvelines — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Yvelines — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Forecast updated