Loiret — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Loiret
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 73% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 50%.
Compared with the average
| Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loiret — 1ère circonscription | 33.3% | 32.1% | 30.6% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageLoiret | 17.3%+16.0 | 42.3%−10.2 | 24.5%+6.0 | 2.4%−0.4 |
| National averageFrance | 17.0%+16.3 | 36.0%−3.8 | 29.0%+1.5 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Stéphanie RIST · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 1.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stéphanie RIST Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,775 | 31.6 |
| Ghislaine KOUNOWSKI | Left (NFP) | 16,706 | 31.5 |
| Tiffanie RABAULT | RN and allies | 14,880 | 28.0 |
| Guillaume CHASSANG | Centre (Ensemble) | 3,620 | 6.8 |
| Nicole MAURICE | RN and allies | 659 | 1.2 |
| Claude TREPKA | Far left | 439 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Loiret — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Loir-et-Cher — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Eure-et-Loir — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Loiret — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Loiret — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Loir-et-Cher — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Forecast updated