Loir-et-Cher — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Loir-et-Cher
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 66% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.4 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 69%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loir-et-Cher — 1ère circonscription | 38.1% | 34.7% | 14.5% | 7.2% |
| Provincial averageLoir-et-Cher | 45.5%−7.4 | 21.9%+12.8 | 17.0%−2.5 | 11.3%−4.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+2.1 | 17.0%+17.7 | 29.0%−14.5 | 12.2%−5.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Marc FESNEAU · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 3.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine BARDET | RN and allies | 19,074 | 35.2 |
| Marc FESNEAU Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 18,711 | 34.6 |
| Reda BELKADI | Left (NFP) | 8,311 | 15.4 |
| Pierre Gilles PARRA | LR and allies | 3,220 | 6.0 |
| Gildas VIEIRA | Centre (Ensemble) | 2,867 | 5.3 |
| Alain LOMBARD | Far left | 1,828 | 3.4 |
| François DASSONNEVILLE | Others | 138 | 0.3 |
| Jean-Marc TRAN | Others | 4 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Indre-et-Loire — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Loir-et-Cher — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Loir-et-Cher — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Indre-et-Loire — 3ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), toss-up
- Loiret — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), competitive
- Indre-et-Loire — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated