Charente-Maritime — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Charente-Maritime
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charente-Maritime — 4ème circonscription | 48.0% | 22.9% | 16.6% | 9.5% |
| Provincial averageCharente-Maritime | 40.2%+7.8 | 18.7%+4.2 | 32.6%−16.0 | 5.3%+4.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+12.0 | 17.0%+5.9 | 29.0%−12.5 | 12.2%−2.7 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Pascal MARKOWSKY · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 25.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal MARKOWSKY Elected | RN and allies | 28,510 | 45.2 |
| Raphaël GERARD | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,625 | 28.0 |
| Danièle DESSELLES | Left (NFP) | 10,972 | 17.4 |
| Céline DROUILLARD | LR and allies | 5,251 | 8.3 |
| Olivier TRIPELON | Far left | 707 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gironde — 11ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Charente-Maritime — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Charente — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Gironde — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Gironde — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Gironde — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), competitive
- Forecast updated