Bouches-du-Rhône — 15ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bouches-du-Rhône
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 34.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouches-du-Rhône — 15ème circonscription | 54.1% | 19.4% | 12.1% | 11.1% |
| Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône | 44.0%+10.1 | 32.3%−12.9 | 5.9%+6.2 | 14.1%−3.0 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+18.1 | 29.0%−9.7 | 12.2%−0.1 | 17.0%−5.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Romain BAUBRY · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 34.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Romain BAUBRY Elected | RN and allies | 37,493 | 49.5 |
| Wassila AÏDAROUS | Left (NFP) | 15,314 | 20.2 |
| Solange PONCHON | Centre (Ensemble) | 12,202 | 16.1 |
| Stephane HERMELLIN | LR and allies | 8,272 | 10.9 |
| Martine ELESIKIAN | RN and allies | 1,414 | 1.9 |
| Anne TESTUT | Far left | 617 | 0.8 |
| Christophe PTAK | Others | 457 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Vaucluse — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Vaucluse — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Vaucluse — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 13ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 16ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated