Vaucluse — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Vaucluse
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 87% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 25%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaucluse — 1ère circonscription | 42.1% | 38.8% | 11.1% | 4.5% |
| Provincial averageVaucluse | 26.2%+15.9 | 50.4%−11.6 | 13.0%−1.9 | 7.2%−2.8 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+13.0 | 36.0%+2.8 | 17.0%−5.9 | 12.2%−7.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Raphaël ARNAULT · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 3.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine JAOUEN | RN and allies | 15,598 | 34.6 |
| Raphaël ARNAULT Elected | Left (NFP) | 11,155 | 24.8 |
| Philippe PASCAL | Left (NFP) | 8,229 | 18.3 |
| Malika DI FRAJA | Centre (Ensemble) | 7,264 | 16.1 |
| Johan COURTOIS | LR and allies | 1,459 | 3.2 |
| Philippe TOUTAIN | RN and allies | 594 | 1.3 |
| Christine CHATENAY | Others | 391 | 0.9 |
| Eddine GHOUALI | Far left | 361 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vaucluse — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Gard — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 15ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Vaucluse — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Vaucluse — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 16ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated