Vaucluse — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Vaucluse
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaucluse — 4ème circonscription | 56.1% | 18.8% | 12.3% | 8.8% |
| Provincial averageVaucluse | 50.4%+5.8 | 26.2%−7.4 | 13.0%−0.7 | 7.2%+1.5 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+20.2 | 29.0%−10.2 | 17.0%−4.8 | 12.2%−3.5 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Marie-France LORHO · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 37.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-France LORHO Elected | RN and allies | 30,192 | 49.9 |
| Monia GALVEZ | Left (NFP) | 11,887 | 19.6 |
| Lise Anne Sophie CHAUVOT | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,449 | 17.3 |
| David MARSEILLE | LR and allies | 2,685 | 4.4 |
| Marie-Claude BOMPARD | RN and allies | 2,125 | 3.5 |
| Bruno COULON | LR and allies | 1,893 | 3.1 |
| Anne Marie HAUTANT | Others | 729 | 1.2 |
| Nicolas PETILLOT | Far left | 556 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vaucluse — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Vaucluse — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Gard — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Drôme — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Vaucluse — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Vaucluse — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated