Bouches-du-Rhône — 16ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Bouches-du-Rhône
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouches-du-Rhône — 16ème circonscription | 51.4% | 29.2% | 9.9% | 6.6% |
| Provincial averageBouches-du-Rhône | 44.0%+7.4 | 32.3%−3.1 | 14.1%−4.1 | 5.9%+0.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+15.4 | 29.0%+0.2 | 17.0%−7.1 | 12.2%−5.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Emmanuel TACHE DE LA PAGERIE · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 22.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel TACHE DE LA PAGERIE Elected | RN and allies | 28,179 | 47.1 |
| Nicolas KOUKAS | Left (NFP) | 17,896 | 29.9 |
| Marion BISCIONE | Centre (Ensemble) | 8,900 | 14.9 |
| Alain BERNARDET | LR and allies | 3,217 | 5.4 |
| Florent SEDDIK | RN and allies | 712 | 1.2 |
| Guy DUBOST | Far left | 505 | 0.8 |
| Samir BOUZIANI | Greens | 396 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 13ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Gard — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 15ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Vaucluse — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Bouches-du-Rhône — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Gard — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated