Alpes-de-Haute-Provence — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Alpes-de-Haute-Provence
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpes-de-Haute-Provence — 1ère circonscription | 48.2% | 26.4% | 14.3% | 8.2% |
| Provincial averageAlpes-de-Haute-Provence | 46.6%+1.6 | 29.2%−2.8 | 16.0%−1.7 | 5.3%+2.9 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+12.2 | 29.0%−2.7 | 17.0%−2.7 | 12.2%−4.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Christian GIRARD · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 21.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian GIRARD Elected | RN and allies | 18,616 | 44.3 |
| Felix BLANC | Left (NFP) | 11,457 | 27.3 |
| Benoit GAUVAN | Centre (Ensemble) | 8,132 | 19.4 |
| Sandra RAPONI | LR and allies | 2,956 | 7.0 |
| Patricia CAMPART | RN and allies | 468 | 1.1 |
| Annabel ROS | Far left | 396 | 0.9 |
| Nadia LAKHLEF TSALAMLAL | LR and allies | 1 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Var — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-de-Haute-Provence — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Var — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Alpes-Maritimes — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated