Alpes-de-Haute-Provence — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Alpes-de-Haute-Provence
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpes-de-Haute-Provence — 2ème circonscription | 45.0% | 32.1% | 17.6% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageAlpes-de-Haute-Provence | 46.6%−1.6 | 29.2%+2.9 | 16.0%+1.7 | 5.3%−2.9 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+9.0 | 29.0%+3.0 | 17.0%+0.6 | 12.2%−9.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Sophie VAGINAY · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 12.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie VAGINAY Elected | RN and allies | 18,314 | 40.9 |
| Léo WALTER | Left (NFP) | 14,774 | 33.0 |
| Dominique BLANC | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,162 | 22.7 |
| Myriam CADENEL | RN and allies | 585 | 1.3 |
| Loan REYNAUD | LR and allies | 512 | 1.1 |
| Henri CYVOCT | Far left | 438 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Alpes-de-Haute-Provence — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Hautes-Alpes — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Hautes-Alpes — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Var — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Isère — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Alpes-Maritimes — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated