Hautes-Alpes — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Hautes-Alpes
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hautes-Alpes — 1ère circonscription | 41.1% | 29.6% | 17.5% | 8.4% |
| Provincial averageHautes-Alpes | 38.9%+2.2 | 30.7%−1.1 | 19.6%−2.0 | 4.8%+3.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+5.1 | 29.0%+0.5 | 17.0%+0.5 | 12.2%−3.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Marie-José ALLEMAND · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 11.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jérôme SAINTE-MARIE | RN and allies | 15,774 | 38.2 |
| Marie-José ALLEMAND Elected | Left (NFP) | 12,568 | 30.5 |
| Pascale BOYER | Centre (Ensemble) | 9,312 | 22.6 |
| Dorian DEININGER | LR and allies | 2,950 | 7.2 |
| Véronique BUISSON | Far left | 643 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Alpes-de-Haute-Provence — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Isère — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Drôme — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Isère — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Hautes-Alpes — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Vaucluse — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated