France · 2027 presidential poll
Odoxa — October 7, 2026
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
Compared with our average for the same lineup (“Le Pen · Philippe · Glucksmann”):
- Glucksmann 9.5% vs 11.7% (−2.2 pts)
- Le Pen 37% vs 35.3% (+1.7 pt)
- Mélenchon 18% vs 17% (+1 pt)
House effect: on the same lineups, Odoxa usually puts Tondelier 1.4 pt higher than other pollsters (5 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
This poll tested 2 candidate line-ups
French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.
Line-up 1 · with Philippe
- Marine Le Pen37%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon18%
- Édouard Philippe17%
- Raphaël Glucksmann9.5%
- Bruno Retailleau6.5%
- Éric Zemmour4.5%
- Marine Tondelier3%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 2 · with Attal
- Marine Le Pen38%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon18.5%
- Gabriel Attal11%
- Raphaël Glucksmann10.5%
- Bruno Retailleau9%
- Éric Zemmour4.5%
- Marine Tondelier3.5%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls