France · 2027 presidential poll
Elabe — March 28, 2026
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
House effect: on the same lineups, Elabe usually puts Mélenchon 2.3 pts lower than other pollsters (12 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
Run-off match-ups tested
- null 42% — 58% null
- null 51.5% — 48.5% null
- null 28.5% — 71.5% null
- null 41.5% — 58.5% null
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection → All 2027 presidential polls →