France · 2027 presidential poll

Elabe — April 4, 2025

Fieldwork
April 2, 2025 → April 4, 2025
Sample
1,413 respondents
Published
April 4, 2025
Pollster release
Pollster release →

First round, voting intention

  • Jordan Bardella 31%
  • Édouard Philippe 20.5%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann 10.5%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9.5%
  • Bruno Retailleau 8.5%
  • Fabien Roussel 4.5%
  • Éric Zemmour 4%
  • Marine Tondelier 3.5%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 3%
  • Dominique de Villepin 2.5%
  • Philippe Poutou 1.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud 1%

Our reading of this poll

House effect: on the same lineups, Elabe usually puts Mélenchon 2.3 pts lower and Roussel 1.1 pt higher than other pollsters (12 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.

Where each candidacy takes its votes from: the candidacy effect →

This poll tested 6 candidate line-ups

French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.

Line-up 1 · with Bardella, Philippe, Glucksmann, Retailleau, Villepin

  • Jordan Bardella31%
  • Édouard Philippe20.5%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann10.5%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon9.5%
  • Bruno Retailleau8.5%
  • Fabien Roussel4.5%
  • Éric Zemmour4%
  • Marine Tondelier3.5%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
  • Dominique de Villepin2.5%
  • Philippe Poutou1.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%

Line-up 2 · with Bardella, Attal, Wauquiez, Faure

  • Jordan Bardella35.5%
  • Gabriel Attal18%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon10.5%
  • Fabien Roussel5.5%
  • Éric Zemmour5%
  • Marine Tondelier4.5%
  • Laurent Wauquiez4.5%
  • Olivier Faure4%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan4%
  • Philippe Poutou2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1.5%

Line-up 3 · with Le Pen, Attal, Retailleau, Faure

  • Marine Le Pen36%
  • Gabriel Attal18%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%
  • Bruno Retailleau10%
  • Marine Tondelier6%
  • Fabien Roussel5.5%
  • Olivier Faure4%
  • Éric Zemmour3.5%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
  • Philippe Poutou2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%

Line-up 4 · with Bardella, Philippe, Retailleau, Faure

  • Jordan Bardella31.5%
  • Édouard Philippe23%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%
  • Bruno Retailleau9%
  • Olivier Faure6%
  • Marine Tondelier6%
  • Fabien Roussel5.5%
  • Éric Zemmour4%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
  • Philippe Poutou1.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%

Line-up 5 · with Le Pen, Philippe, Retailleau, Faure

  • Marine Le Pen32%
  • Édouard Philippe23.5%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%
  • Bruno Retailleau8%
  • Fabien Roussel6%
  • Olivier Faure5.5%
  • Marine Tondelier5.5%
  • Éric Zemmour3.5%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
  • Philippe Poutou2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%

Line-up 6 · with Le Pen, Philippe, Glucksmann, Wauquiez

  • Marine Le Pen33.5%
  • Édouard Philippe24%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann10.5%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon9.5%
  • Fabien Roussel5%
  • Laurent Wauquiez4.5%
  • Marine Tondelier4%
  • Éric Zemmour3.5%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
  • Philippe Poutou2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud0.5%

A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.

Our weighted average and projection → All 2027 presidential polls →

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