France · 2027 presidential poll
Cluster17 — September 16, 2026
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
Compared with our average for the same lineup (“Le Pen · Philippe · Glucksmann”):
- Philippe 19% vs 17% (+2 pts)
- Le Pen 31% vs 32.9% (−1.9 pt)
- Glucksmann 12% vs 10.5% (+1.5 pt)
House effect: on the same lineups, Cluster17 usually puts Le Pen 3.7 pts lower, Mélenchon 3.3 pts higher and Dupont-Aignan 1.2 pt higher than other pollsters (6 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
This poll tested 3 candidate line-ups
French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.
Line-up 1 · with Philippe, Glucksmann, Zemmour
- Marine Le Pen31%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon19%
- Édouard Philippe19%
- Raphaël Glucksmann12%
- Bruno Retailleau7.5%
- Éric Zemmour3.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
- Marine Tondelier2.5%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 2 · with Philippe, Hollande, Lisnard
- Marine Le Pen30%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon19.5%
- Édouard Philippe19.5%
- François Hollande7.5%
- Bruno Retailleau7.5%
- David Lisnard5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan4%
- Fabien Roussel3%
- Marine Tondelier3%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
Line-up 3 · with Glucksmann, Attal, Zemmour
- Marine Le Pen31.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon20%
- Raphaël Glucksmann14%
- Gabriel Attal13.5%
- Bruno Retailleau9.5%
- Éric Zemmour3.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
- Fabien Roussel2.5%
- Marine Tondelier2.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection → All 2027 presidential polls →