Territoire de Belfort — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Territoire de Belfort
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Territoire de Belfort — 1ère circonscription | 42.5% | 25.1% | 21.7% | 6.3% |
| Provincial averageTerritoire de Belfort | 41.6%+0.9 | 21.7%+3.3 | 24.4%−2.7 | 8.3%−2.0 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+6.6 | 12.2%+12.9 | 29.0%−7.3 | 17.0%−10.7 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Ian BOUCARD · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 17.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carine MANCK | RN and allies | 12,719 | 39.7 |
| Ian BOUCARD Elected | LR and allies | 7,679 | 24.0 |
| Marie-Eve BELORGEY | Left (NFP) | 7,233 | 22.6 |
| Maggy GROSDIDIER | Centre (Ensemble) | 3,608 | 11.3 |
| Christiane PETITOT | Far left | 426 | 1.3 |
| Marion KEMPS HOUVER | Sovereignists | 350 | 1.1 |
| Séverine MERLINI | Others | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Territoire de Belfort — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Doubs — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haut-Rhin — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haut-Rhin — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haut-Rhin — 5ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Doubs — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated