Haut-Rhin — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Haut-Rhin
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haut-Rhin — 4ème circonscription | 46.9% | 31.1% | 13.9% | 5.3% |
| Provincial averageHaut-Rhin | 40.8%+6.1 | 12.0%+19.0 | 17.6%−3.6 | 5.3% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+11.0 | 12.2%+18.9 | 29.0%−15.1 | 3.9%+1.4 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Raphaël SCHELLENBERGER · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 15.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marion WILHELM | RN and allies | 30,294 | 44.9 |
| Raphaël SCHELLENBERGER Elected | LR and allies | 21,166 | 31.4 |
| Simone FEST | Left (NFP) | 10,352 | 15.4 |
| Maxence HELFRICH | Others | 2,416 | 3.6 |
| Corinne MORGEN | Greens | 1,754 | 2.6 |
| Raymonde DIOP | RN and allies | 871 | 1.3 |
| Aime SENSE | Far left | 582 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Haut-Rhin — 5ème circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Haut-Rhin — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haut-Rhin — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Haut-Rhin — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Territoire de Belfort — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Territoire de Belfort — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated