Vosges — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Vosges
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vosges — 4ème circonscription | 50.2% | 31.8% | 14.7% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageVosges | 43.7%+6.5 | 31.1%+0.7 | 15.2%−0.5 | 1.9% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+14.2 | 12.2%+19.6 | 29.0%−14.4 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Sébastien HUMBERT · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 18.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sébastien HUMBERT Elected | RN and allies | 20,529 | 48.0 |
| Jean-Jacques GAULTIER | LR and allies | 13,644 | 31.9 |
| François-Xavier WEIN | Left (NFP) | 6,851 | 16.0 |
| Camille BAILLY | Far left | 674 | 1.6 |
| Caroline HUBERT | RN and allies | 538 | 1.3 |
| Marie BENI | Centre (Ensemble) | 519 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Vosges — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Saône — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Saône — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated