Meurthe-et-Moselle — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Meurthe-et-Moselle
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meurthe-et-Moselle — 1ère circonscription | 36.8% | 29.8% | 21.3% | 7.6% |
| Provincial averageMeurthe-et-Moselle | 31.4%+5.3 | 39.4%−9.7 | 11.7%+9.6 | 13.3%−5.7 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+7.8 | 36.0%−6.2 | 17.0%+4.3 | 12.2%−4.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Estelle MERCIER · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 7.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estelle MERCIER Elected | Left (NFP) | 20,645 | 37.7 |
| Patricia MELET | RN and allies | 14,719 | 26.9 |
| Philippe GUILLEMARD | Centre (Ensemble) | 14,435 | 26.4 |
| Aurélien ARNOULD | LR and allies | 3,518 | 6.4 |
| Christiane NIMSGERN | Far left | 741 | 1.4 |
| Massimo NESPOLO | Sovereignists | 664 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Moselle — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Moselle — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated